Roundup: The London to New York handover, continuation, fades and inventory risk at the NY open
Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2026 10:14 am
Roundup: The London to New York handover, continuation, fades and inventory risk at the NY open
The overlap and NY open have nine thin threads between them on this board, and they line up into a fairly clear set of rules. The short version: the overlap is a different market depending on what London already did. Here's the longer one.
What the overlap is
The overlap scalping thread sets the scene: roughly 13:00 to 16:00 UTC, usually the deepest liquidity of the day in the majors, tight spreads and strong moves. It adds the caveat that matters most: the overlap is also when US data and Fed speakers land, so many of its biggest moves are news-driven. Separate news days from quiet days in your results, or you won't know which behaviour you're actually trading.
First question: did London leave unfinished business?
The continuation thread only trades into the overlap when London left an unfinished impulse: a clear drive, a shallow pullback that held, and a nearby objective not yet tagged. If London already spent the range and went flat into lunch, there's no continuation trade at the NY open just because the clock says so.
The GBPUSD "London already spent the range" thread turns that into a number. A reply uses London's high-to-low so far divided by the 20-day median of the full daily range. When that ratio is already past roughly 0.7 by 12:30 London, it calls the range spent and switches from breakouts to digestion or smaller mean reversion trades.
The NY open continuation thread adds filters: no Tier-1 in the next thirty minutes, EURUSD spread back to normal after any 13:30 noise, and size at most half of London morning size.
Know when it's failed
The AUDUSD abort thread writes it down: the London story has to be intact before entry, with a clear direction, a pullback that held, and the morning's key level unbroken. If that level has gone by the NY open, there's no trade.
Fades
Two threads cover fading. The one-way London morning thread only fades with clear exhaustion into a level, normal spreads and tight invalidation, and lists what doesn't count: fading because you missed the move, fading into US data, fading because your P&L wants balance. The inventory flush thread fades sharp NY open bursts on EURUSD only when the flush tags obvious London liquidity and reverses quickly with a reclaim, outside the first seconds of a release, entering after the reclaim rather than mid-candle.
Carrying London trades into NY
The inventory risk thread says carrying a London scalp into the NY open has done more damage than the average loser. Spreads step wider, flows flush, and a tidy +0.6R can be -0.4R within a minute while you "just watch". The default there is flat or heavily reduced 10 to 15 minutes before the NY open.
Correlation in the busiest window
The overlap correlation thread caps combined risk across EURUSD and the EUR crosses in that window. A reply is blunter: during the US data hour, any two USD pairs count as one position, because on a dollar move they travel together.
The threads mostly agree. The overlap rewards trades that continue a clear London story and punishes trades that try to start a new one.
Do you carry London positions into the NY open, or flatten before? If you carry, what makes you keep one?
Threads this pulls from
The overlap and NY open have nine thin threads between them on this board, and they line up into a fairly clear set of rules. The short version: the overlap is a different market depending on what London already did. Here's the longer one.
What the overlap is
The overlap scalping thread sets the scene: roughly 13:00 to 16:00 UTC, usually the deepest liquidity of the day in the majors, tight spreads and strong moves. It adds the caveat that matters most: the overlap is also when US data and Fed speakers land, so many of its biggest moves are news-driven. Separate news days from quiet days in your results, or you won't know which behaviour you're actually trading.
First question: did London leave unfinished business?
The continuation thread only trades into the overlap when London left an unfinished impulse: a clear drive, a shallow pullback that held, and a nearby objective not yet tagged. If London already spent the range and went flat into lunch, there's no continuation trade at the NY open just because the clock says so.
The GBPUSD "London already spent the range" thread turns that into a number. A reply uses London's high-to-low so far divided by the 20-day median of the full daily range. When that ratio is already past roughly 0.7 by 12:30 London, it calls the range spent and switches from breakouts to digestion or smaller mean reversion trades.
The NY open continuation thread adds filters: no Tier-1 in the next thirty minutes, EURUSD spread back to normal after any 13:30 noise, and size at most half of London morning size.
Know when it's failed
The AUDUSD abort thread writes it down: the London story has to be intact before entry, with a clear direction, a pullback that held, and the morning's key level unbroken. If that level has gone by the NY open, there's no trade.
Fades
Two threads cover fading. The one-way London morning thread only fades with clear exhaustion into a level, normal spreads and tight invalidation, and lists what doesn't count: fading because you missed the move, fading into US data, fading because your P&L wants balance. The inventory flush thread fades sharp NY open bursts on EURUSD only when the flush tags obvious London liquidity and reverses quickly with a reclaim, outside the first seconds of a release, entering after the reclaim rather than mid-candle.
Carrying London trades into NY
The inventory risk thread says carrying a London scalp into the NY open has done more damage than the average loser. Spreads step wider, flows flush, and a tidy +0.6R can be -0.4R within a minute while you "just watch". The default there is flat or heavily reduced 10 to 15 minutes before the NY open.
Correlation in the busiest window
The overlap correlation thread caps combined risk across EURUSD and the EUR crosses in that window. A reply is blunter: during the US data hour, any two USD pairs count as one position, because on a dollar move they travel together.
The threads mostly agree. The overlap rewards trades that continue a clear London story and punishes trades that try to start a new one.
Do you carry London positions into the NY open, or flatten before? If you carry, what makes you keep one?
Threads this pulls from
- Session Overlap Scalping: London-New York Window
- London-NY overlap continuation: only if London left an unfinished impulse
- Overlap fade after a one-way London morning: rules that keep me honest
- GBPUSD into the overlap when London already spent the range
- Overlap continuation during NY open: rules and filters
- When overlap continuation fails on AUDUSD: my abort criteria
- How do you handle NY open inventory risk
- NY open inventory flush as a fade setup on EURUSD
- EURUSD at London-NY overlap: correlated risk cut rule