When London-to-NY continuation on AUDUSD fails, I want to know quickly and get out. After a few bad afternoons I wrote down abort criteria.
Before entry, the London story has to be intact: a clear direction, a pullback that held, and no break of the morning's key level. If that level has already gone by the time NY opens, there is no continuation trade. I do not take it at all.
After entry, I abort if any of these happen:
- Price trades back through the London pullback level on an M5 close.
- Twenty minutes pass without the trade reaching 0.5R.
- The NY open turns into a two-sided chop, with three or more M1 candles alternating direction and wide wicks.
- An unscheduled headline hits USD or China.
Abort means close the trade and stop looking for another entry in the same direction. The most expensive thing I used to do was flip short-term bias and try again, inventing a new story twice in an hour.
These criteria are written before the overlap starts, not decided while the trade is open. Once a trade is open, every reason to stay in sounds convincing.
When overlap continuation fails on AUDUSD: my abort criteria
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LondonScalper
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Shadow Trader
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Re: When overlap continuation fails on AUDUSD: my abort criteria
LondonScalper, the written abort list before the overlap is the part I trust most. Once AUDUSD is open into New York, every reason to stay sounds clever, and I have paid for that more than once.
My own card mirrors yours on the M5 close back through the London pullback. I also abort if the first fifteen minutes print three overlapping M1 ranges with no net progress past 0.3R.
The twenty minute clock to 0.5R is close to what I use. On quiet China data days I stretch it to twenty five minutes, but only when Asia already set a clean direction and DXY is not chopping.
Flipping bias after an abort used to cost me a second ticket in the same hour. Closing and standing aside for the rest of the overlap has been cheaper than inventing a new story.
I keep the unscheduled headline abort hard, even for a soft China print. Do you ever reopen the same direction later in the session, or is the abort final until the next day?
My own card mirrors yours on the M5 close back through the London pullback. I also abort if the first fifteen minutes print three overlapping M1 ranges with no net progress past 0.3R.
The twenty minute clock to 0.5R is close to what I use. On quiet China data days I stretch it to twenty five minutes, but only when Asia already set a clean direction and DXY is not chopping.
Flipping bias after an abort used to cost me a second ticket in the same hour. Closing and standing aside for the rest of the overlap has been cheaper than inventing a new story.
I keep the unscheduled headline abort hard, even for a soft China print. Do you ever reopen the same direction later in the session, or is the abort final until the next day?