Overlap continuation during NY open: rules and filters

[PropScalpDesk]

Overlap continuation for me means London already chose a direction and NY open tries to push it without a fresh Tier-1 landmine.

Filters:

- London session already made a clear open drive or accepted range break I traded or marked.
- No Tier-1 in the next thirty minutes.
- Spread on EURUSD back to normal after the 13:30 noise if any.
- Size at most half of London morning size.
- Time stop short - I am not marrying an afternoon thesis.

If NY open is chaotic with no London context, I skip. Overlap is not a second London. It is a conditional add-on. Prop accounts get the same filters with even less permission to invent a new story at 14:00. I tag overlap tickets separately in the journal so expectancy is not blended with London morning stats. Blended stats are how afternoon mediocrity hides. Prop reviews like clear buckets; so do I.

Concrete example: London drives EURUSD up through the Asia high, holds it through lunch, and NY opens with a push in the same direction on normal spread. That is the trade I want. If London chopped all morning, NY open has nothing to continue.

[Shadow Trader]

London giving back too much over lunch is the filter I'd add to your concrete example. If the pullback from the London high retraces more than half of the morning drive, I don't count it as held, even if price stays above the Asia high.

The attached chart is a made up EURUSD M5 illustration of a day that passes. London breaks the Asia high at 08:00 and drives about 30 pips, lunch gives back roughly a third, and the 13:30 data candle stays inside the lunch range.

img_13248_r1.png (86.38 KiB) Viewed 20 times

My entry is a break of the lunch range high once spread is normal again, here at 14:35. The stop goes under the lunch low, and at half size the cash risk stays well under a morning trade.

The time stop is six M5 candles. If price hasn't made a new high of the day by then, the continuation isn't there and I'm out wherever it is.

I'd also split the overlap bucket once more in the journal. Trades in the London direction and trades against it behaved so differently in my notes that blending them hid a losing fade habit.

How do you handle days where London's high came in the last hour before lunch? Those leave almost no pullback to measure.

[Shadow Trader]

PropScalpDesk, one thing that trips the no Tier-1 in thirty minutes filter is the 10:00 New York slot, which is 15:00 London for most of the year. ISM, consumer confidence and JOLTS all land there, so a continuation entry around 14:35 runs straight into them.

My time stop on these is six M5 candles, so an entry at 14:35 would still be open when the number prints. On those days I close everything at 14:55 and skip any entry after 14:40, since a trade with less than half its time stop left is not worth the spread.

That shrinks the window to about ten minutes after the 14:30 equity open. Some weeks it removes three of five sessions, and I would rather lose those trades than turn a continuation ticket into a data bet.

I would also question treating every 10:00 release the same way. Pending home sales rarely moves EURUSD more than a few pips while ISM can do 20, so my list only blocks the ones that have moved the pair 10 pips or more in the past year.

Do you include the 10:00 releases in your Tier-1 list, or only the 13:30 London ones? Your concrete example would play out quite differently on an ISM day.