Not every Tokyo morning is a tidy range waiting for a London fade. Some days expand early and punish the fade-everything habit that worked last week. I switched from “Asia fade by default” to a simple expansion check before I plan London mean reversion.
Rules I use:
- If Tokyo already expands beyond my overnight width threshold, I stop planning a London fade of Asia extremes as the A-setup.
- I mark the expansion and treat London as continuation-or-stand-aside, not automatic mean reversion.
- Size down until London cash confirms interest rather than assuming the early move must reverse.
How do you decide Tokyo is an expansion day on EURUSD before London arrives?
I annotate expansion days in the journal with a simple flag so London reviews do not mix fade samples with continuation samples. Mixing them is how you convince yourself a dead fade “almost works.”
