Not every Tokyo morning is a tidy range waiting for a London fade. Some days expand early and punish the fade-everything habit that worked last week. I switched from “Asia fade by default” to a simple expansion check before I plan London mean reversion.
Rules I use:
If Tokyo already expands beyond my overnight width threshold, I stop planning a London fade of Asia extremes as the A-setup.
I mark the expansion and treat London as continuation-or-stand-aside, not automatic mean reversion.
Size down until London cash confirms interest rather than assuming the early move must reverse.
The point is matching the day’s character, not forcing yesterday’s playbook onto a different auction.
How do you decide Tokyo is an expansion day on EURUSD before London arrives?
I annotate expansion days in the journal with a simple flag so London reviews do not mix fade samples with continuation samples. Mixing them is how you convince yourself a dead fade “almost works.”
I use a number here as well: the Asia high-low at 07:00 London against the 20-day median Asia range for EURUSD. Anything above about 1.3 times the median is an expansion day for me, and the London fade is off.
Before trusting it, I also look at what drove the move. When EURUSD expands in Tokyo it's often not about the euro at all. It's the yen or a China headline moving the dollar broadly. If USDJPY and AUDUSD made the same move, it's a dollar day and London usually continues. If only EURUSD moved, there's a better chance London reverses part of it.
