EURUSD around NFP: flat, fade, or first impulse?

[LondonScalper]

NFP is louder than many prints, but the decision categories are still flat, fade, or impulse — not vibes.

My EURUSD default remains flat into the print. Post-release, I wait for the initial two-way mess to settle. If a directional impulse holds a pullback with structure, continuation at reduced size is allowed. If we get a spike-and-reclaim into pre-NFP balance, a fade is allowed with tight risk. Guessing the number is not a strategy and never has been on my desk.

I also cap trades for the rest of the session. NFP mornings invite "just one more" more than almost any other calendar event. If London already trended hard into NFP, I am even slower to engage — spent ranges plus payroll spikes are a poor cocktail.

• What is your EURUSD NFP branch: flat, fade, or impulse?
• Do you treat it differently when NFP lands into a London trend day?

Process over prediction.

[PropScalpDesk]

Flat into it here too. What keeps me flat for a bit longer than the first settle is that NFP is really three numbers released at once: the headline, the revisions to the previous two months, and average hourly earnings, with the unemployment rate alongside. The first move often trades the headline, and then the second leg arrives once people have read the revisions and wages. A strong headline with a large downward revision can reverse inside a few minutes.

So my branch is basically "fade or impulse, but not before about 13:45 London", and only if the components point the same way. When they conflict, I skip the whole morning.

On your second question: on a strong London trend day I've found the print more often gives a chance to rejoin the trend on a pullback than a clean reversal, but my sample of those days is small.