My EURUSD default remains flat into the print. Post-release, I wait for the initial two-way mess to settle. If a directional impulse holds a pullback with structure, continuation at reduced size is allowed. If we get a spike-and-reclaim into pre-NFP balance, a fade is allowed with tight risk. Guessing the number is not a strategy and never has been on my desk.
I also cap trades for the rest of the session. NFP mornings invite "just one more" more than almost any other calendar event. If London already trended hard into NFP, I am even slower to engage — spent ranges plus payroll spikes are a poor cocktail.
- What is your EURUSD NFP branch: flat, fade, or impulse?
- Do you treat it differently when NFP lands into a London trend day?
