Mark the first 15–30 minutes after London cash open. I only take the break if Asia was relatively contained and the first drive shows follow-through beyond a couple of noisy ticks. Entry is on a shallow retest of the broken edge, not the first spike through. Stop sits the other side of the range; target is a measured bite of the morning range, not a day-trade fantasy.
On EURJPY the move can look clean on M5 and still die once you add spread plus a bit of slip. My rule now: if average hold cost for the last twenty ORBs eats more than about a third of the median winner, I drop size or skip the pair that week. I also refuse ORB when a Japan or Euro print sits inside my expected hold window — pattern beauty does not override calendar.
I journal whether the break was continuation of Asia or a true London expansion. Those two behave differently after costs.
- Do you still take EURJPY ORB after costs, or has it become a chart fantasy?
- 15-minute box or 30 — what actually pays you?
