Weekly jobless claims: the release everybody ignores until they should not

[Fairman]

Weekly jobless claims: the release everybody ignores until they should not

Every Thursday at 8:30am New York time, initial jobless claims come out. Most weeks, nothing happens. Price twitches and moves on.

But the release is a useful lesson in how markets assign importance. When the labour market is the focus of central bank policy, even a modest surprise in claims can trigger a move of 10 to 20 pips. When the focus is elsewhere, it is ignored.

Scalpers who sleepwalk through it get caught on the occasional week when it does matter. The first sign is usually a wider than normal spread in the minute before the release.

There is also a seasonality issue. Claims data around holidays and the start of the year can be noisy, and the market sometimes over-reacts to numbers that will be revised.

A modest habit is checking the context each week: is the labour market a hot topic right now? If so, claims deserve some respect. If not, they can be treated as background noise.

The release also lands at the same time as other data on some Thursdays, such as durable goods or the Philadelphia Fed survey, which can turn a quiet 8:30 into a busy one.

Has an ordinary claims report ever produced a surprisingly large move?

[Fairman]

Claims are released every Thursday at 8:30am Eastern by the US Department of Labor, so they're the most frequent read on the labour market. Most weeks the reaction in EUR/USD is small, maybe a few pips. But in periods when the market is worried about a slowing economy, claims can move the dollar much more. In early 2020, claims jumped to millions per week, which was historic. Since then, I've watched claims more closely in periods when the labour market is the main story. In quiet weeks it's mainly useful as a reminder to keep positions small around 8:30.

[Amanhasnoname]

I once ignored jobless claims for months and then lost about 40 pips on a Thursday when I left a USDJPY long running over 8:30. Claims came in far above expectations, the market was worried about the labour side at that time, and price dropped 35 pips in under a minute. It taught me that the release has no fixed importance and depends on the story of the moment.

My habit now is a quick context check on Wednesday evening. I read what the central bank said at its last meeting, and if employment is the stated concern, I treat claims like a mid-tier release and flatten or tighten stops before it. If the focus is inflation, I let it pass with normal size.

I also noted that the spread on USDJPY usually widened from 0.4 to about 1.0 pips in the final minute before the number, which is a decent warning sign. If I see it widen, I stay out of new entries until about five minutes afterwards.