The second wave: FOMC statement versus press conference

[Fairman]

The second wave: FOMC statement versus press conference

The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2pm New York time, with the statement and any projections. Thirty minutes later the chair holds a press conference.

Those are two separate events, and the market often reacts to them differently. The statement produces an immediate spike. The press conference, with its tone and answers to questions, can produce a bigger and longer move in the opposite direction.

Many traders have been caught by this. The statement looks hawkish, price jumps, positions get taken, and then a few words in the press conference soften the message and everything reverses.

The result is a pattern: two phases of volatility with a quiet stretch in between. Treating them as one event misses the structure.

A conservative approach is skipping the statement spike entirely, and watching how the market handles the press conference, where information can still change the story. Another is waiting until the end of the conference for a clearer picture.

A third phase is worth noting: the hour after the press conference, when the market digests everything and often drifts in a direction that neither earlier phase suggested. Some traders find that the best trades of the day are in that quiet hour.

Which phase of the FOMC day has treated the strategy better, the statement or the press conference?