Frankfurt decision afternoons: statement first, questions second

[FXS London Scalper]

ECB decision days have a structure similar to the Fed: a statement at 14:15 Prague time and a press conference at 14:45. The decision itself is usually fully priced; the questions after it are where the surprise lives.

One pattern worth testing is how often the euro's first reaction to the statement is in the opposite direction to its move by the end of the conference. If that happens frequently, the statement window is mostly noise for a directional trader.

A method: take recent meetings, record EURUSD at 14:14, 14:20, 14:44 and 15:30, and compute the sign of each segment. This takes an evening and produces a concrete answer for your own style rather than relying on forum lore.

It also helps to read the staff projections, released with the statement in some months, because a revised inflation path can shift expectations more than any phrase. Watch for wording around data dependence and whether future moves are described as meeting by meeting.

Does anyone trade the conference itself, or only after it ends?