Early closes on December 24 and 31 are not normal days

[Fairman]

Early closes on December 24 and 31 are not normal days

Both dates usually bring early closes for stock markets in the US and Europe, and a general reduction in participation in currency markets. Volume falls off earlier than usual, sometimes by midday London time.

Scalpers see a market that runs normally for a few hours and then thins dramatically. The change can be abrupt. A pair that moved easily at ten in the morning becomes sticky and jumpy by two in the afternoon.

The risk is not so much the quiet. It is the combination of quiet and the occasional large order from a client who needs to square a position before year-end. Those orders hit a thin market and produce spikes that make no technical sense.

Treating those days as half sessions is sensible. Plan for the morning only, set size smaller than usual, and be ready to stop once the market goes quiet.

A related trap is the settlement calendar: certain products settle on the day before or after these holidays, which can create odd flows that do not show up on the economic calendar.

Do year-end days tend to produce surprises in your records?