Central bank speakers and the unscheduled move

[Amanhasnoname]

Scheduled data comes with a calendar. Speeches by central bank officials are listed too, but their impact is far less predictable. A single sentence can change rate expectations, and price reacts within moments.

The challenge is that most speeches do nothing. A few produce sharp moves, and nobody knows in advance which. That leads to a pattern of complacency followed by surprise.

Headlines from speeches arrive through news feeds with delays of seconds, and the price often moves before the text appears. By the time a trader reads the sentence, the reaction has happened.

For scalpers, speeches by the heads of major central banks deserve respect, and others are often ignorable. Marking the calendar by importance and sticking to a rule, like no new trades five minutes before and after top-tier speakers, can protect against the worst cases.

Also helpful is noticing the language. Words like 'surprised', 'concerned', or 'ready to act' in a speech tend to move markets more than routine commentary.

Which speakers are on the avoid list, and which ones turned out to be harmless?