Inflation prints and the first tick problem

[Amanhasnoname]

Consumer price data has become one of the most market-moving releases. The first reaction often differs from the trend that develops over the next few minutes, which makes the first tick a risky guide.

What typically happens: the headline number gets compared to expectations, price jumps in one direction, then the core figure and details get digested, and sometimes price reverses completely. The whole thing may take under a minute.

For scalpers, the trap is the speed. An entry on the first jump is based on the headline alone, with spreads wide and fills unreliable.

A sober approach is separating the event into phases. Phase one, the first few seconds, is mostly noise. Phase two, the next several minutes, shows how the market interprets the details. Phase three is the drift that follows.

Trading phase two or three with normal rules tends to be much safer than gambling on phase one.

Recording what happens at each release, with timestamps and notes, builds a useful reference over a year.

Which phase of a major data release is the most tradeable, based on experience?