Non-farm payrolls: why the one-minute chart tells nothing useful

[Amanhasnoname]

On the first Friday of the month, the jobs report comes out, and every scalper wants a piece. The reality in the first seconds is a mess.

Spreads on majors can jump from under one pip to ten or twenty. Quotes pause, resume, and jump. The first candle might have a wick of 50 pips in both directions, and the direction of the close is almost random.

A one-minute chart cannot capture the sequence of events inside that candle. Price may have spiked up, collapsed, and returned, all before the bar closed. Any pattern read from it is shaped by chance.

Orders sent during those seconds are filled at prices far from the screen. Stops slip heavily. Limit orders may fill, or may not, depending on the feed.

Many experienced traders sit out the release and trade the second wave, ten to thirty minutes later, when spreads settle and a clearer direction appears.

How has the first minute after payrolls treated you, and what is your rule for the event?