ISM and the 10am release that moves the dollar

[Fairman]

ISM and the 10am release that moves the dollar

The US ISM manufacturing and services reports come out at 10am New York. They're among the most-watched surveys, and the dollar often reacts within seconds.

A distinctive feature is the timing. At 10am, the US session is already in full swing, so liquidity is solid. Spreads widen less than for 8:30 releases, and the move is relatively orderly.

Subcomponents matter. The headline index might be near expectations while prices paid or new orders surprise. The initial move follows the headline and often reverses as the details come out.

The reaction in pairs can be a clean 15 to 25 pip move, and the follow-through is more reliable than for some 8:30 releases because the participants are already in place.

The 10am slot also coincides with the New York option cut on many days. Two sources of flow overlap, sometimes with a muddy result.

For scalpers, ISM is a relatively friendly event: large enough to trade, small enough to manage. But the details matter, and a headline-only reaction will often be wrong.

At 10am events versus 8:30am events, how do fills compare on the account here?