Reading the first sixty seconds after a data release as a timeline

[Shadow Trader]

Most discussion of news trading treats the release as one event. It's closer to a sequence, and each stage has a different cost structure.

Before the release, roughly the last thirty seconds, liquidity providers pull back. Spreads stretch, quote sizes shrink, and ticks slow down. Anyone entering here pays the most for the least.

At the release, the first one to three seconds belong to the fastest participants. Algorithms read the headline number, compare it with the forecast, and hit the market. Price can gap, and retail platforms often show a frozen or stale quote during this window. Orders sent now are filled late, if at all.

From about three to fifteen seconds, the first overreaction runs its course. Spreads are still wide, but quotes are flowing again. Moves of ten to thirty pips on majors are common, and they frequently reverse partly, because the initial reaction priced the headline and not the details.

From about fifteen to sixty seconds, the market digests the components of the report. Revisions, subcategories, wage figures, whatever was buried under the headline. This is where the real direction often forms, and it's frequently the opposite of the first spike.

After a minute, spreads begin to shrink, but they usually take several minutes to get back to normal.

Each stage rewards a different approach, and the biggest mistake is applying the same entry logic to all of them. A strategy built for calm conditions fails in stage one, and a news-spike strategy fails in stage four.

Which stage has been the most reliable for scalping, and how was it timed?