The New York cut and why price gets sticky near big option strikes

[Amanhasnoname]

Standard FX options expire at 10:00 New York time. Dealers with large strikes in the market sometimes hedge in ways that keep spot pinned near a strike, then release it afterwards. The effect is not constant and plenty of days show nothing at all, but on days with a big strike close to spot, the last hour before the cut can look oddly range-bound.

Barrier options add a second twist. A knock-out sitting just beyond a round number can attract price toward it, because the holder of the other side hedges aggressively as it nears. That can produce a sharp poke through the level followed by an immediate snap back once the barrier is cleared.

None of this is directly visible from a retail chart, which is exactly why it is easy to over-attribute. Expiry sizes are sometimes quoted in market commentary or bank notes, though accuracy varies.

A practical use for scalpers is simply scheduling. Compare the average range of the 9:00 to 10:00 New York hour with the same hour on days with no notable expiry, and see if breakout setups work worse before the cut.

Anyone with a dataset of the 10:00 New York bar, how does a minute either side of it behave compared with a normal minute?