The role of the economic calendar's "forecast" column

[Shadow Trader]

The calendar lists three numbers for each release: previous, forecast and actual. Most attention goes to actual against forecast. A more telling comparison is actual against what was truly expected by traders.

The forecast column is a consensus of economists' estimates, usually collected days earlier. Whispers and positioning in the final hours can shift real expectations. When an actual figure is in line with the forecast, price may still move if the market had positioned for a different outcome.

Revisions to the previous figure also matter. A headline employment gain of 180,000 looks fine, but if the prior month was revised down by 60,000, the reaction may be negative.

Beyond the headline, components count. Wage growth in an employment report, core inflation without food and energy, and services versus manufacturing in a survey often drive the move.

The calendar is a starting point. Reading the full release explains many reactions that look contradictory.

How are releases digested here, headline only or the full breakdown?