the break-even win rate table nobody sticks on their monitor

[Shadow Trader]

Break-even win rate is just 1 divided by (1 + reward-to-risk). Before any costs, that gives:

- 0.5R target vs 1R stop: 66.7% wins needed
- 1R vs 1R: 50%
- 1.5R vs 1R: 40%
- 2R vs 1R: 33.3%
- 3R vs 1R: 25%

Check the first line. A scalper who grabs quick 5-pip profits and leaves a 10-pip stop sitting there needs two wins out of three just to tread water. Plenty of scalping setups feel great because they win 70% of the time, and then the numbers say the account is flat.

Flip it round and the low hit-rate styles look scary but are fine on paper. A 3R trade can lose three times out of four and still pay for itself.

None of this includes spread or commission, which push every line of the table upward. And a win rate sitting exactly on the break-even line is a coin flip with extra costs, not a strategy.

Where does your own setup sit on this table, and did you ever find the real hit rate was lower than it felt?