after 4 losses in a row, is a win really "due"?

[Shadow Trader]

One side says the next trade is overdue for a win. Four losers, so the odds have to tilt back. The other side says the market has no memory, each trade is a fresh draw, and sizing up after a streak is just gambling with extra steps.

On pure independence, the other side wins. If a system truly wins 55% of the time on independent trades, the chance the next one wins is 55% after four losses, same as after four wins. Nothing is owed.

But there is a wrinkle the other side tends to skip. Trades are not always independent. Four losses in a row can mean the market flipped from trending to chopping, or spreads widened, or the setup simply stopped fitting the conditions. In that case the next trade is slightly worse than 55%, not better. So the streak carries information, just not the information one side wants.

Either way, "due" is the wrong word.

Which camp are you in, and has a losing streak ever made you change size or filters mid-session?