The revenge trade lasts forty seconds

[Fairman]

The revenge trade lasts forty seconds

After a stop-out, a new trade appears within a minute. Same direction, larger size. The thinking is that the market owes the money back.

On a short timeframe, the whole sequence is compressed. Loss, anger, entry, second loss, all within three minutes. The speed leaves no space for reflection.

What makes this pattern persistent is that it sometimes works. A revenge trade wins about as often as any random trade, and the occasional win confirms the habit.

The cost shows up in the aggregate. Revenge trades have worse entry quality, bigger sizes, and wider stops. Over a month the losses outweigh the wins by a large margin.

A cooling-off rule can be mechanical: after any stop-out, wait five minutes before the next trade. A timer works better than willpower.

Does the trade log show a cluster of trades within a minute or two of a loss, and how do they perform compared with the rest?