a hot week is the most dangerous week

[Shadow Trader]

Confidence after a winning week feels earned and ready to be used. In fact confidence gets built from a handful of results, and a handful of results mostly reflects conditions, which can change overnight.

After five green days, size creeps up. 0.5 lots becomes 0.8 because the read on the market feels sharp. Filters loosen a notch. Setups that would've been skipped on Monday feel fine by Friday.

Myth: the stop-out that follows is bad luck. Reality: it's usually a perfectly normal stop at a size nobody planned. At the usual lot it would've been routine. At the inflated one it wipes out three days.

A simple column shows this clearly: planned size next to actual size. Hot weeks make the gap obvious.

A blunt rule some adopt: size only changes on a schedule, say once a month, never because the last week felt good.

Has a hot streak ever ended with one trade that undid most of it, and was the size normal on that one?