red folder, orange folder, why does it matter so little

[Shadow Trader]

Calendar impact ratings are a gripe worth having. The colour tells almost nothing about what price will do.

A "low impact" speech by a central bank member can move a pair 30 pips if the wording shifts slightly. A "high impact" number can print exactly on forecast and produce a flat candle. The rating is set by a site's editors based on how big the event usually is, not how big it will be today.

Context decides the real weight. A jobs report in a week when everyone is fixated on employment is a big deal. The same report in a week dominated by an inflation print can barely register.

Impact also depends on the pair. A New Zealand release can shake NZD pairs and do nothing to EUR/USD. The calendar doesn't separate that.

Then there's the "all red folders are equal" habit, where a trader skips every one of them and misses the ones that drive nothing, or trades all of them and eats spread on events that never move.

Better to build a personal rating from real history. Look at the last ten releases of each event and note the average range in the first five minutes.

Do you keep your own impact list, or do you trust the calendar colours, and which event surprised you most by ignoring its rating?