the NFP revision line that quietly moves things

[Shadow Trader]

Every first Friday the headline jobs number gets all the attention. Meanwhile the revisions to the previous two months sit a little further down the release, and they can carry just as much information.

Say the headline prints close to expectations, but the two prior months are revised down by a combined 80,000 jobs. A quick buy on the headline can reverse a minute or two later once the revision gets digested. Price often moves in two steps: the knee-jerk to the headline, then the second look.

It works the other way round too. A soft headline propped up by upward revisions can see the dollar recover within minutes. The first spike turns into a fade.

The unemployment rate and average hourly earnings add a third and fourth input, and algos read all of them at once. The first candle is often just a race. The cleaner read tends to appear after the dust settles, if it appears at all.

That's also why spreads and slippage around the release can swallow the edge before the second move even starts.

Does the headline-only reaction fade for you, or does the revision line usually decide the direction? And is the second move ever worth waiting for?