USDCAD around the 16:00 London WM fix: what to log on M1
Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2026 10:31 am
USDCAD in the ten minutes either side of the 16:00 London WM/Reuters fix is worth observing even if you don't trade it. The fix calculation window runs for five minutes around 16:00, and flows executed around it can move the pair.
What to log on M1, on ordinary days with month ends kept separately:
How to judge a reversal pattern: if direction flips on, say, 21 of 34 days, that's 62%, but the chance of 21 or more in 34 coin flips is around 12%. Promising, not proven. And the move is a few pips, so costs take a good part of any edge.
The safer use is defensive: avoid opening new USDCAD scalps from 15:55.
Does anyone here trade around the fix on purpose? Which pairs show the reversal most clearly?
What to log on M1, on ordinary days with month ends kept separately:
- Range from 15:55 to 16:05, compared with a normal 10 minute window at that hour.
- Direction into the fix versus direction from 16:00 to 16:10. Does a move into 16:00 tend to give some of it back?
- Spread in the last minute before the fix and how quickly it returns to normal.
How to judge a reversal pattern: if direction flips on, say, 21 of 34 days, that's 62%, but the chance of 21 or more in 34 coin flips is around 12%. Promising, not proven. And the move is a few pips, so costs take a good part of any edge.
The safer use is defensive: avoid opening new USDCAD scalps from 15:55.
Does anyone here trade around the fix on purpose? Which pairs show the reversal most clearly?