USDCAD around the 16:00 London WM fix: what to log on M1

[FXS London Scalper]

USDCAD in the ten minutes either side of the 16:00 London WM/Reuters fix is worth observing even if you don't trade it. The fix calculation window runs for five minutes around 16:00, and flows executed around it can move the pair.

What to log on M1, on ordinary days with month ends kept separately:

• Range from 15:55 to 16:05, compared with a normal 10 minute window at that hour.
• Direction into the fix versus direction from 16:00 to 16:10. Does a move into 16:00 tend to give some of it back?
• Spread in the last minute before the fix and how quickly it returns to normal.

Month ends deserve their own sample because rebalancing flows are much bigger, and there are only twelve a year, so they will take a long time to say anything.

How to judge a reversal pattern: if direction flips on, say, 21 of 34 days, that's 62%, but the chance of 21 or more in 34 coin flips is around 12%. Promising, not proven. And the move is a few pips, so costs take a good part of any edge.

The safer use is defensive: avoid opening new USDCAD scalps from 15:55.

Does anyone here trade around the fix on purpose? Which pairs show the reversal most clearly?