US jobless claims at 13:30 London: worth trading for a scalper?

[FXS London Scalper]

US initial jobless claims are released every Thursday at 13:30 London. Most of the time they barely move EURUSD. Is it worth watching them at all as a scalper?

A way to find out: log the first five minutes of EURUSD after claims for a few months, along with what else was released at 13:30.

What to compare:

• Median range in the first five minutes against a normal five-minute window at that time on non-data days.
• The largest moves, and what else came out with them, such as a GDP print or durable goods orders.

The likely finding is that claims alone are a small event, and the bigger risk is forgetting what else is scheduled at the same minute. The exception is a big surprise in a period when the market is focused on the labour market, when even claims can move the dollar.

A practical rule: on Thursdays, check the calendar for anything else at 13:30. If claims are alone, keep trading at normal size but avoid entries in the two minutes around the release. If there's other data, treat it as a full news event.

How do others treat claims?