Pre-news drift: the quiet creep before the storm

[Shadow Trader]

Often, in the hour before a major release, price drifts slowly in one direction on thin volume. It looks like a mini trend, tempting traders to join. Then the data arrives and the move reverses completely.

There are a few explanations. Some participants position early on their forecast. Liquidity providers widen quotes and skew them to reduce risk. Smaller orders produce larger moves in a thinner market.

Whatever the cause, the drift usually offers poor value. Spreads are wider, the move lacks conviction, and the risk of a sharp reversal is high.

A clear policy helps. Stop opening new trades some minutes before scheduled high-impact events, and close or protect existing ones. The exact window depends on strategy, but fifteen to thirty minutes is common.

It is also worth recording what happens to price after drifts. If reversals occur more often than continuations, the pattern becomes a trading signal in its own right.

How long before major releases do you stop opening fresh positions, and why that number?