The fifteen-minute reversal after big news

[Shadow Trader]

A common pattern after major releases is an initial burst in one direction followed by a partial or full reversal over the next ten to twenty minutes. The reasons are mixed. Early trades are driven by algorithms reading headlines, and slower participants analyse the details afterwards, sometimes disagreeing with the first reaction.

Some analysts call it the fade window. Prices overshoot, liquidity returns, and the market settles at a level that reflects a more careful reading of the data.

The pattern is not guaranteed. Strong surprises, especially in rate decisions, can start a trend that lasts all day. But on moderate surprises, reversals are common enough to be worth testing.

A simple study involves recording the price at the release, at one minute, five minutes, and fifteen minutes for twenty events on a pair, then calculating how often the fifteen-minute level lies between the release price and the one-minute extreme.

If the result is consistent, it provides a rough basis for fading trades, with the caveat that costs are high during that window.

What does the fifteen-minute pattern look like on the pair you trade, and does the pattern change with the size of the surprise?