Fading the first 10 pip spike after 08:00: how to test it

[FXS London Scalper]

A simple idea worth testing on EURUSD and GBPUSD: when the first move after 08:00 London is a quick spike of at least 10 pips in under three minutes, fade it with a stop above the spike high and a target at the 08:00 price.

How to test it properly:

• Define the spike exactly: 10 pips or more from the 08:00 open, within three M1 bars.
• Log every qualifying spike, not only those that look fadeable.
• Use real fills, or at least add realistic slippage. Stops right after the open often fill worse than planned.
• Mark news days, including minor European releases at 08:00 or 08:15 London.

How to read the result, with a worked example: a 41% win rate with average winners of 1.6R and losers of 1.05R after slippage gives 0.41 × 1.6 − 0.59 × 1.05 ≈ +0.04R per trade. That's effectively zero once a few bad fills land.

Two filters are logical candidates. Spikes driven by news should continue more often, so removing news days may help. Spikes with wide spreads will have poor fills. But each filter shrinks the sample, and with 30 or 40 trades left you can't tell a real improvement from luck.

Has anyone run a similar fade test on the open spike? Did you find a filter that separates the ones that continue?