EURUSD and the Bund open at 07:00 London: is there a lead?

[FXS London Scalper]

German Bund futures start their main session at 08:00 CET, which is 07:00 London. Do Bund moves in that first hour say anything about EURUSD at the London open?

How to check it: log Bund futures and EURUSD each morning from 07:00 to 08:00 London, and the EURUSD move from 08:00 to 08:30.

What to look at:

• On large Bund moves (pick a threshold in ticks, for example 30), how often EURUSD moved clearly in the same window, and in which direction.
• Whether small Bund moves say anything at all.
• Days with US data or ECB speakers, kept separately, because both markets react to the same news.

The trap is reading co-movement as a lead. If both react to the same headline at the same time, Bund doesn't predict EURUSD; they're just reporting the same event. A lead would mean the Bund move comes first and EURUSD follows later in a consistent direction. Look at timestamps, not just hourly totals.

Even without a lead, it's a useful sanity check. A Bund moving sharply before London suggests a busier EURUSD open.

Does anyone watch bond futures alongside FX for scalping? Is the Schatz more useful than the Bund for this?