Using ADR to set realistic scalping targets

[FXS London Scalper]

I used to set fixed targets of 10 pips on EURUSD. On some days that was a joke, on others it was far too small. Now targets depend on the average daily range (ADR).

How I do it:

• ADR = average of the last 10 daily ranges.
• Each morning I check how much of today's ADR has already been used by the time I trade.
• Target for a scalp: no more than 10–15% of ADR, and no more than what's left of the expected range.

Example: ADR on EURUSD is 60 pips. At 09:00 London, the day has already moved 40 pips. Remaining "expected" range is around 20 pips. A 10-pip target is still possible, but the odds are lower than at the start of the day. I'd reduce it to 6–8.

On a 90-pip day after big news, ADR stretches and targets can be bigger.

What this changed in my journal: fewer trades that came within a couple of pips of target and reversed. Win rate went up a bit, average win down a bit, overall slightly better.

Limitation: ADR is backward-looking. On days of big scheduled events, it underestimates. So I widen it on NFP, CPI and central bank days.

Does anyone use ADR or ATR-based targets for scalps? What percentages work for you?