A pattern that shows up regularly on EURJPY: steady drift in one direction from about 15:30 UK, accelerating into 16:00, then a sharp reversal. It looks like someone needed to buy or sell a large amount before the fix, and once done, the pressure vanishes.
What the tape typically shows:
15:30–15:50: small directional candles, few pullbacks, tick activity slightly above average.
15:50–16:00: acceleration, larger candles, spread may widen slightly.
16:00–16:05: a spike at or just after the fix, often the extreme of the move.
16:05–16:30: retracement of 50% or more of the pre-fix move.
Trading ideas:
- Don't fade the drift before 16:00. Flows can be large and persistent.
- After 16:05, if price fails to make a new extreme, a fade toward the 15:30 level can work.
- Use tight stops: if the post-fix move extends, the flow may not be done.
Month-end amplifies this. On ordinary days the pattern may be weak or absent.
Has anyone systematically traded the post-fix reversal on yen crosses?
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EURJPY tape read: an inventory flush into the London fix
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EURJPY tape read: an inventory flush into the London fix
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Re: EURJPY tape read: an inventory flush into the London fix
Month-end brings a quirk that shows up more on thin pairs than on majors. A few things worth knowing:
- Rebalancing flows. Funds that hold foreign assets adjust currency hedges near the end of the month, and that tends to produce directional pressure, often around the London fix. The fix window is where the pressure concentrates.
- Liquidity thins before it gets heavy. In the hours before the fix, some providers widen or reduce size, so a pair like NZD/CHF or EUR/NOK can look quiet and then jump.
- Reversals are common right after the fix. A push that looked like a trend sometimes unwinds once the flow is done, and thin pairs overshoot more because there is less depth to absorb it.
- Spread behavior is uneven. Some brokers widen a lot around the fix, others barely move, so the cost of scalping the window differs.
None of this is reliable on a given day. The flows vary in size and direction, and some months are quiet.
Which pairs have you noticed misbehaving in the last hour or two before the month-end fix?
- Rebalancing flows. Funds that hold foreign assets adjust currency hedges near the end of the month, and that tends to produce directional pressure, often around the London fix. The fix window is where the pressure concentrates.
- Liquidity thins before it gets heavy. In the hours before the fix, some providers widen or reduce size, so a pair like NZD/CHF or EUR/NOK can look quiet and then jump.
- Reversals are common right after the fix. A push that looked like a trend sometimes unwinds once the flow is done, and thin pairs overshoot more because there is less depth to absorb it.
- Spread behavior is uneven. Some brokers widen a lot around the fix, others barely move, so the cost of scalping the window differs.
None of this is reliable on a given day. The flows vary in size and direction, and some months are quiet.
Which pairs have you noticed misbehaving in the last hour or two before the month-end fix?