NY open: continuation or reversal of the London move?

[FXS London Scalper]

By 13:30 UK the London session has usually picked a direction. The New York open then either extends that move or reverses it, and picking wrong is expensive.

A short checklist before taking the first NY trade:

• How far has London already travelled? If EURUSD has covered more than 80% of its average daily range by 13:00, continuation has less room.
• Is there US data at 13:30? Data can flip direction regardless of London's trend.
• Has the London move been smooth (higher lows, small pullbacks) or choppy? Smooth trends continue more often.
• Where is price relative to the London high/low? Testing it at the NY open is a decision point.
• What are US yields doing? A yield move against the London direction is a warning sign.

Rough rule of thumb: strong smooth trend + no major data + room left on the ADR = look for continuation pullbacks. Extended move + data + price at an extreme = wait for the first 15 minutes before choosing.

The worst trade is usually picking a reversal at 13:31 before anything has shown it.

What's your default bias at the NY open, and what makes you change it?