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Acceptance: how long does price need to hold beyond a level?

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Fairman
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Acceptance: how long does price need to hold beyond a level?

Post by Fairman »

Acceptance: how long does price need to hold beyond a level?

People talk about price being accepted above a level or rejected from it. It sounds clear until you try to define it. Is one close above enough? Three? Half an hour?

There's no correct answer, but I think the useful way to think about it is time relative to the timeframe you trade. On M5, one close above a level tells you very little. A few closes, with price building a small base above the level rather than just touching it and hanging there, says more. On M15 or H1, a single close carries more weight because each candle covers more time.

Another way to judge acceptance is what happens on the first pullback. If price breaks above, pulls back to the level, and holds there with the level acting as support, that's acceptance in a practical sense. If the pullback goes straight through the level and keeps going, it wasn't accepted.

What I avoid is calling acceptance on the break candle itself. A big candle that closes above a level and then immediately reverses is a common trap.

My working definition, for what it helps: at least two M5 closes beyond the level plus a pullback that holds. It's a filter, not a rule from a book, but it keeps me from reacting to every poke.
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Fairman
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Re: Acceptance: how long does price need to hold beyond a level?

Post by Fairman »

Volume can help here if you use tick volume, but I'd be careful with it. Acceptance on rising tick volume suggests more activity behind the move. Acceptance on falling tick volume can still hold, especially in quieter sessions, so I wouldn't treat low volume as rejection on its own. Time and the pullback behaviour seem more reliable than volume for this, at least on the majors. On the crosses, where tick volume is thinner and noisier, I mostly ignore it and just watch how the candles sit around the level.
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Fairman
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Re: Acceptance: how long does price need to hold beyond a level?

Post by Fairman »

The definition probably should change with volatility. On a busy day after news, two M5 closes above a level might happen in ten minutes and mean less than on a quiet day where two closes take a lot more effort. One option is to measure acceptance in terms of distance as well as time, for example holding at least a fraction of the recent ATR beyond the level. It's more work to judge in real time, but it adjusts for the type of day. I'm still on the simpler version, but I can see the case for it.
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Re: Acceptance: how long does price need to hold beyond a level?

Post by FXS Prop Desk »

On M5, holding beyond a level for 15 to 30 minutes means something. On M1, a few candles might be enough.

Another way to define it is by retest. If price breaks a level, comes back to it and holds, that is often a clearer sign of acceptance than a fixed time. Combining both can give a more reliable rule.
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Fairman
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Re: Acceptance: how long does price need to hold beyond a level?

Post by Fairman »

What price does after the hold matters as much as the hold itself. If price holds beyond a level for a few candles and then pushes further with momentum, acceptance looks confirmed. If it holds but stays stuck right at the level, drifting sideways, that's weaker. It suggests nobody is really keen to push it further. I'd want some follow through within a reasonable time, maybe an hour on M5, before treating the level as truly broken and flipped. Otherwise the slow drift often ends with price slipping back inside, and the acceptance turns out to be nothing more than a pause.
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Re: Acceptance: how long does price need to hold beyond a level?

Post by Fairman »

How do people treat acceptance across session boundaries? Price might hold above a level through the quiet end of New York and the Asian session, which looks like acceptance on the chart. But very few people were trading in those hours. When London opens, the hold sometimes gets rejected quickly. I've started giving less weight to holds during thin hours and waiting to see whether the level still holds once London is active. A hold through a busy session counts for a lot more than one through a quiet night, even if the candles look the same.
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