Recovery Asymmetry Table: How Deep Losses Change Required Returns and Sizing
Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2026 9:57 am
Everyone knows that a 50% loss needs a 100% gain to recover. It is less often turned into a sizing rule. Here is the table in full:
A sizing rule that follows from the table:
At what drawdown level do you start reducing size?
- -5% → +5.3%
- -10% → +11.1%
- -15% → +17.6%
- -20% → +25%
- -30% → +42.9%
- -40% → +66.7%
A sizing rule that follows from the table:
- Up to -5%: normal size.
- -5% to -10%: size reduced by a quarter.
- Beyond -10%: half size until half of the drawdown is recovered.
At what drawdown level do you start reducing size?