People asked for my post-news reversion rules after a thread last month, so here they are, as written on my card.
1. Only on releases where my own log shows the first spike reverting more often than not. For me that is a short list of second-tier data, not NFP or CPI.
2. The spike must reach a level marked before the release: a session high or low, a previous day's level, or a round number that mattered earlier.
3. Wait for spread to return to near normal. Usually 30 seconds to two minutes.
4. Entry needs a rejection candle at the level on M1, closing back inside.
5. Stop beyond the spike extreme plus a buffer. If that stop is more than twice my normal scalp stop, no trade.
6. Target is the pre-release price or halfway back, whichever is closer.
7. One attempt per release. If stopped out, I do not try again in either direction.
8. Half size if the figure was a large surprise, or skip completely if it was extreme.
The rule I break most is number seven, wanting to take a second shot because "now it really has to revert". The log says second attempts lose more often than first attempts.
If you try these, change the list of releases in rule one to match your own data. Mine will not fit your pairs and hours.
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Post-news reversion scalps: rules I actually share
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LondonScalper
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Shadow Trader
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Re: Post-news reversion scalps: rules I actually share
The second attempt rule is the one people break, including me. Log says second shots after a failed reversion lose more often than first attempts, yet the urge to fix the scratch is strong.
Only second tier releases from my own log make the list. Payroll and CPI stay off; the short list is figures where the first spike reverted more often than not in my hours and pairs.
Stop beyond the spike extreme plus buffer cannot exceed twice my normal scalp stop. Wider than that and I skip, because the reversion edge does not pay for a stop that large.
Entry still needs spread near normal and a rejection close back inside the marked level. Target is pre release price or halfway back, whichever is closer, and one attempt only.
Half size on a large surprise, or skip if the print is extreme. Which releases make your revert list from your own log, not from someone else's card?
Only second tier releases from my own log make the list. Payroll and CPI stay off; the short list is figures where the first spike reverted more often than not in my hours and pairs.
Stop beyond the spike extreme plus buffer cannot exceed twice my normal scalp stop. Wider than that and I skip, because the reversion edge does not pay for a stop that large.
Entry still needs spread near normal and a rejection close back inside the marked level. Target is pre release price or halfway back, whichever is closer, and one attempt only.
Half size on a large surprise, or skip if the print is extreme. Which releases make your revert list from your own log, not from someone else's card?
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Shadow Trader
- Posts: 959
- Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2026 5:19 pm
Re: Post-news reversion scalps: rules I actually share
LondonScalper, the rule I added to a list like yours is a time stop. If a fade has not covered half the distance to my target within eight M1 candles, I close it, because reversions that work in my log mostly do their job fast.
Rule six needs a precise reference too. I take the mid price at one minute before the release as the pre release price, not a candle close that already includes the widened spread.
Another filter sits on rule two. If the marked level is more than about one and a half times the usual spike size away from the pre release price, I ignore it, since a spike that has to travel that far is rarely an overreaction.
Then there is the missed entry case. Sometimes price tags the level while spread is still wide and has already turned by the time spread is normal; I let that one go rather than chase the rejection late.
Those last two rules cut my ticket count on these setups by about a third. The trades they removed were mostly the ugly ones anyway.
Do you use any time limit on a fade, or let the stop and target decide everything? I resisted the time stop for months before the log changed my mind.
Rule six needs a precise reference too. I take the mid price at one minute before the release as the pre release price, not a candle close that already includes the widened spread.
Another filter sits on rule two. If the marked level is more than about one and a half times the usual spike size away from the pre release price, I ignore it, since a spike that has to travel that far is rarely an overreaction.
Then there is the missed entry case. Sometimes price tags the level while spread is still wide and has already turned by the time spread is normal; I let that one go rather than chase the rejection late.
Those last two rules cut my ticket count on these setups by about a third. The trades they removed were mostly the ugly ones anyway.
Do you use any time limit on a fade, or let the stop and target decide everything? I resisted the time stop for months before the log changed my mind.