Night-before calendar when geopolitics can spike
Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2026 7:54 pm
Scheduled news has a timestamp. Geopolitical risk does not. The night-before process still helps.
I mark whether the open risk is raised: weekend headlines, thin Monday liquidity, unresolved event risk that desks are already pricing. If yes, the sheet gets a simpler London plan - fewer pairs, earlier flatten rules, and a standing instruction that any out-of-calendar spike is treat-as-Tier-1 until spread and realised range calm down.
I do not pretend I can predict the headline. I decide in advance whether I am allowed to trade the first impulse at all. Usually the answer is no. The night-before work is writing that "no" while I am calm, so Monday morning me does not negotiate.
If nothing is raised, I still keep one line on the sheet: "unscheduled spike protocol = flatten and wait". Boring. Used twice last quarter. Both times I was glad it was already written. The point is not bravery. The point is having a rule when the calendar did not warn you. I keep the raised-risk mark for the whole London morning unless the tape is dull and spreads are normal by 08:30. Removing the mark early is how Monday heroics start.
I mark whether the open risk is raised: weekend headlines, thin Monday liquidity, unresolved event risk that desks are already pricing. If yes, the sheet gets a simpler London plan - fewer pairs, earlier flatten rules, and a standing instruction that any out-of-calendar spike is treat-as-Tier-1 until spread and realised range calm down.
I do not pretend I can predict the headline. I decide in advance whether I am allowed to trade the first impulse at all. Usually the answer is no. The night-before work is writing that "no" while I am calm, so Monday morning me does not negotiate.
If nothing is raised, I still keep one line on the sheet: "unscheduled spike protocol = flatten and wait". Boring. Used twice last quarter. Both times I was glad it was already written. The point is not bravery. The point is having a rule when the calendar did not warn you. I keep the raised-risk mark for the whole London morning unless the tape is dull and spreads are normal by 08:30. Removing the mark early is how Monday heroics start.