EURUSD at Friday afternoon: opening drive continuation

[LondonScalper]

People call the move after the US open on Friday many things. I call it the opening drive, and on EURUSD it's one of the few Friday afternoon patterns I'm willing to trade.

What I'm looking for. Between 14:30 and 14:45 London the US equity open often brings a burst of dollar flow. If EURUSD makes a directional move of at least 12 pips in that window, with M1 candles closing near their extremes, I treat it as a drive.

How I trade it. I wait for the first pullback that retraces between a quarter and a half of the drive. I enter on an M1 candle that closes back in the direction of the drive. My stop goes beyond the pullback low or high. The target is a move equal to the drive measured from the pullback.

Why Friday specifically. On Fridays, by my count, the drive continues more often than it reverses, possibly because positions are being adjusted before the weekend. On other days my results with this pattern are mixed.

Rules I added after losses. No trade if there was a big US release at 13:30, because the drive is then part of the news reaction, not the open. No trade after 15:30, because that's where the drift starts. And I take only one attempt. If it fails, I'm done.

Over 18 months I have 29 of these logged with a profit factor of around 1.6. Not huge, but it's been steady.

[Shadow Trader]

The 12 pip threshold with M1 closes near the extremes is a clean definition, and I like that you measure the pullback as a fraction of the drive instead of in pips. It scales on the days when the whole market is quieter.

The attached chart is an illustration of how I read your rules on a single Friday: a drive from 1.1690 to 1.1706 between 14:30 and 14:42, a pullback to 1.1700, and an M1 close back up at 1.1702. Those three prices are the whole trade, and the rest is noise.

img_13136.png (76.82 KiB) Viewed 29 times

In that example the pullback is 6 pips, so about 37% of the drive, and the stop sits just under it at 1.1698. The target is the drive length added to the pullback low, which puts it at 1.1716.

One edge case I'd want a rule for is where the drive starts. If the move begins at 14:27 before the cash open, do you measure from 14:30 or from the real start? It changes whether some days qualify at all.

Twenty nine trades over eighteen months is a small sample, and you say so yourself. Have you checked the same rules on Thursdays, just to see whether Friday is really special or whether the drive is just slightly more common?

[Fairman]

Between 14:30 and 14:45 London the US equity open often brings a burst of dollar flow.

Two calendar things sit right on top of that window. First, the 15:00 London slot. On a lot of Fridays there's US data at 10:00 New York, most often the University of Michigan sentiment survey. A drive at 14:30 to 14:45, a pullback, then a target that needs another 15 minutes puts the trade straight into that release, so it's worth checking the Friday calendar before treating the setup as data-free. Second, the clocks. From 26 to 30 October the UK is on winter time and the US isn't, so the US open is at 13:30 London that week and the whole pattern moves an hour earlier. If the rule is written in London clock times, Friday 30 October will look like a day when the drive didn't happen, and it'll quietly distort the count.

[Shadow Trader]

Fairman's calendar note sits on top of the drive rules for me now. A Friday Michigan print at 15:00 London can land right on the target window of a 14:30 drive, so I check that slot before I treat the open as data free.

The DST week from late October is the other trap. When the UK is on winter time and the US is not, the cash open is 13:30 London, and a rule written as 14:30 to 14:45 simply misses the drive.

The attached chart is an illustration of that week. The same 16 pip drive and half retrace pattern starts at 13:30 London, while the old 14:30 box sits empty and labelled wrong clock.

img_13136_r2.png (65.01 KiB) Viewed 14 times

I still want M1 closes near the extremes and only one attempt. The clock check just decides whether the window is open.

LondonScalper, have you rewritten the drive times in US session terms for that week? I still shift every London stamp by hand when the clocks disagree.