Pre-news positioning debates: edge or gamble?
Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2026 9:49 pm
Pre-news positioning: edge or gamble? My ledger says gamble for scalpers.
Sitting into a known release with a directional scalp is a different game from post-news structure. Spreads explode, slippage dominates, and your stop is a suggestion. I have done it; the winners felt brilliant and the losers were outsized. Net, not worth it for my hold times.
Where I stand
No intentional pre-positioning for tier-1. If I am caught in a trade approaching a blackout, I flatten early rather than "hope." People trading event volatility with a real plan and size model are not what I am doing on M1.
Curious whether anyone here has a rules-based pre-news scalp that survives costs -- or whether most "I caught NFP" stories omit the silent graveyard.
If your edge truly is event volatility, say so and size like a different strategy -- wider stops, different hold, different venue assumptions. Mixing event gambling into a scalping journal poisons both. Separation is clarity; clarity is risk control.
Sitting into a known release with a directional scalp is a different game from post-news structure. Spreads explode, slippage dominates, and your stop is a suggestion. I have done it; the winners felt brilliant and the losers were outsized. Net, not worth it for my hold times.
Where I stand
No intentional pre-positioning for tier-1. If I am caught in a trade approaching a blackout, I flatten early rather than "hope." People trading event volatility with a real plan and size model are not what I am doing on M1.
Curious whether anyone here has a rules-based pre-news scalp that survives costs -- or whether most "I caught NFP" stories omit the silent graveyard.
If your edge truly is event volatility, say so and size like a different strategy -- wider stops, different hold, different venue assumptions. Mixing event gambling into a scalping journal poisons both. Separation is clarity; clarity is risk control.