The Tokyo fix and the odd move around 9:55 JST

[Fairman]

The Tokyo fix and the odd move around 9:55 JST

Every day near 9:55 Tokyo time, a reference rate gets set for USD/JPY, used by Japanese importers and exporters to settle trades with customers. Banks take orders for the fix and need to manage the flows around it.

In practice, that creates a recognizable pattern on some days: a gradual move in the build-up as the dealers adjust, a spike at or around the fix, and sometimes a reversal afterward. It is most notable on days when a large amount of dollar demand from importers meets thin Asian liquidity.

The effect is not reliable enough to trade blindly. Some days the move is two pips, others twenty. But it is useful as a timing marker. Knowing that a burst of order flow is likely near that time helps in avoiding bad entries just before it, or in setting up fades after it finishes.

Mark the fix time on charts for a few weeks and watch what the pair does each day. Patterns usually stand out quickly.

Has anyone found a repeatable behavior around the Tokyo fix, and on which weekdays is it strongest?