The Tokyo fix and the early morning flows

[Amanhasnoname]

At 9:55 in the morning Tokyo time, a reference rate is set that Japanese importers and other participants use for their dollar yen conversions. In the minutes before, demand for dollars tends to appear as a stream of orders.

The effect is most noticeable on days that are the end of a month or a quarter, or on the fifth, tenth, and other 'gotobi' dates, when Japanese companies settle payments. The result can be a drift in USDJPY toward dollar strength before the fix, with a pause or reversal afterward.

The pattern is not reliable every day. Some mornings show nothing, others a clear squeeze. But it appears often enough for traders to watch.

For scalpers outside Asia, the timing can be awkward, early in the European night. For those in the region, it is a regular feature.

A simple test: mark the 9:55 time on the USDJPY chart for the last six months, and note the direction of the move in the preceding thirty minutes.

Is there a consistent bias in USDJPY before the Tokyo fix on the charts you have studied?