Consensus range versus median: reading the forecast properly

[Amanhasnoname]

Economic calendars show a consensus forecast, usually the median of analyst estimates. The spread of those estimates also matters. A narrow range means the forecast is well agreed, and a surprise is more significant. A wide range means uncertainty, and the median is a weaker benchmark.

A figure that lands within the range but away from the median may cause a muted reaction, while one outside the range can cause a big move.

For scalpers, the information helps estimate the likelihood of a large reaction. A release with a tight consensus and a likely surprise might warrant extra caution, and one with wide disagreement may produce moves in either direction.

Some data providers publish the high and low estimates alongside the median. Including them in the pre-event notes adds context.

Also consider the previous value and revisions. The market's reaction depends on the comparison with expectations, not with the last release.

The analysis will not predict the direction, but it refines the judgment of the risk.

Does the pre-news routine include the range of forecasts, or only the median?