Hindsight bias in chart review

[Amanhasnoname]

After the move, the chart looks obvious. The right entry seems clear, the warning signs visible. Reviewing trades with the full picture creates the illusion that the outcome was predictable.

This distorts learning. Mistakes seem like carelessness, and successes seem like skill. The uncertainty at the time of the decision vanishes from memory.

To review fairly, reconstruct the information available at the time. Replay the chart bar by bar, or tick by tick, hiding the future. Ask what the rules said and what the evidence suggested at that moment.

Record the decision and the reasoning at the time of the trade, not afterward. Short notes captured before the result is known are invaluable.

Also review the trades that were not taken, the signals skipped, and evaluate them with the same discipline.

The aim is separating the quality of decisions from the quality of outcomes. Over a large sample, good decisions win, but in any single trade, luck dominates.

How is the review process designed to avoid knowing the outcome when judging the decision?