Momentum ignition bursts: the quick shove and the reaction

[Amanhasnoname]

Some short-lived bursts of aggressive buying or selling appear designed to push price enough to trigger stops or attract momentum followers, followed by a reversal. Whether intentional or not, the pattern is observable: a sharp move in a few seconds on rising tick rate, a stall, and then a retrace.

For scalpers, the question is whether to follow the burst or fade it. Following means entering after the burst has begun, when price has already moved and spreads may be wide. Fading means betting on exhaustion.

Features that help distinguish include the distance traveled relative to normal, the speed of the move, the spread behavior, and whether the move occurred into a known level or liquidity pocket.

Testing needs a precise definition of a burst, such as a move of more than three times the typical one-second range within five seconds. Then track the next ten to sixty seconds.

Results vary by pair and by time of day. During thin hours, reversals are common. During data releases, continuation is more likely.

Costs, as always, set the bar.

What does the average post-burst path look like for the main pair in different sessions?