The ECB press conference and its separate volatility event

[Amanhasnoname]

The European Central Bank releases its decision and, about 45 minutes later, holds a press conference. The two events are separate volatility episodes. Often the second is as large as the first, because the president's tone and answers shift expectations about future policy.

Scalpers who stop trading after the decision, assuming the event is over, may be caught by the conference. Spikes can occur on a single sentence.

Spreads widen again, and liquidity thins. Orders placed in the quiet between the two can be run over when the conference starts.

Plan the day with both events in mind. Mark the decision time and the conference time. Decide whether to stay out until the conference is over, typically an hour or more.

A study of past events shows the ranges and timing. The most volatile part is often the first few questions, when new information about guidance is revealed.

Waiting for the full event to finish removes both risks, at the cost of missed opportunities that are usually unreliable anyway.

How do the ECB decision and the press conference compare in volatility in the data?