A quiet market gets blamed on the strategy far too often

[Shadow Trader]

Three losing days in a row, and the conclusion arrives quickly: the system has stopped working. Parameters get tweaked, filters get added, and a perfectly good approach turns into a patchwork.

Often the cause is simpler. Volatility dropped. A scalping method calibrated on active conditions finds fewer clean setups when ranges shrink, and the ones that appear don't travel far enough to cover the spread.

Telling the two apart takes data. Compare average range per hour this week with the average over the last three months. If it's down thirty percent, the market is the variable. Compare the win rate and the average win separately. A strategy that still wins as often but earns less per win is suffering from low volatility, not from decay.

Real decay looks different: win rate sliding, fills worsening, losses growing relative to wins, with volatility unchanged.

Making changes during a quiet spell tends to fit the strategy to a temporary condition, and then the market wakes up and the new settings fail.

Sitting out, or trading smaller, until ranges recover is usually cheaper than rebuilding a method.

How can a slow market be told apart from a broken edge?