Sunday open gaps and why the first hour is a trap

[Amanhasnoname]

Weekend news shifts fair value while the market is closed, and the first quotes on Sunday evening reflect that jump with very thin liquidity behind them. Spreads on majors can start several times wider than usual, sometimes 5 pips or more on pairs that normally sit near 1, and they tighten over 15 to 60 minutes depending on the broker and the pair.

Two things bite scalpers here. Stops sitting from Friday fill at the opening price, not at their level, so a gap of 25 pips through a 10 pip stop costs 25. And the old "gaps always fill" line is unreliable: some fill within hours, some never do, and trading it on a wide spread turns a decent idea into a loser before the trade starts.

A clean way to handle it is to decide in advance. Either hold nothing that depends on a stop over the weekend, or accept the gap risk with reduced size. Then skip the first half hour after the open, with the exact window set by what the account shows.

The data is easy to collect. For four Sundays, record the first quote, its spread, and the time the spread drops back to normal on each pair traded. Brokers differ enough that a general number is worth little.

At what time after the Sunday open does your spread on a major first fall below 1 pip?