Order flow in spot FX: what can actually be seen

[Amanhasnoname]

Every footprint chart and delta indicator sold to FX traders hides one awkward fact: spot FX has no central order book. Each dealer, bank and ECN holds its own book, and a retail platform sees only the prices its own broker streams. Futures traders reading the CME book see one venue with real contracts. A spot chart sees a derived price series.

That does not make the tools useless, but it does mean the claims need discounting. Delta computed from tick direction is a guess about who hit whom, built on a feed that is itself one broker's view. Two platforms can print opposite delta for the same minute.

If order flow is the interest, there are honest routes. Currency futures volume (6E for euro, for example) is real traded volume from one regulated venue and tends to move with spot. Some brokers also expose depth of book, though that is usually only their own liquidity pool.

A reasonable test: put a futures volume chart beside the spot chart for a week and note whether the spikes line up with the reversals your indicator flagged.

Has anyone run that comparison and found the spot-derived signal adding anything the futures volume did not?